Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 14 February 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 45 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Feb 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 14/1926Z from Region 2497 (N12W48). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (15 Feb, 16 Feb, 17 Feb).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 456 km/s at 14/0422Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 14/0818Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 14/0641Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and three (15 Feb, 17 Feb) and quiet to active levels on day two (16 Feb). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (15 Feb, 16 Feb, 17 Feb).

III. Event probabilities 15 Feb-17 Feb
Class M 35/35/35
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 15/15/15
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Feb 108
Predicted 15 Feb-17 Feb 109/109/105
90 Day Mean 14 Feb 109

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Feb 007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Feb 011/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Feb-17 Feb 019/027-011/012-014/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Feb-17 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/25/40
Minor Storm 20/05/15
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/20/10
Minor Storm 30/35/30
Major-severe storm 60/30/50