Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 45 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Feb 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (15 Feb) and likely to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days two and three (16 Feb, 17 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 360 km/s at 14/0112Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 14/2034Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 14/1535Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 318 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (15 Feb, 16 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (17 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 15 Feb-17 Feb
Class M 10/25/25
Class X 01/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Feb 120
Predicted 15 Feb-17 Feb 120/125/130
90 Day Mean 14 Feb 152
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Feb 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Feb 003/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Feb-17 Feb 009/012-012/015-009/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Feb-17 Feb
