Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 14 December 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 348 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Dec 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (15 Dec, 16 Dec, 17 Dec).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 401 km/s at 14/0826Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 14/0517Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 14/0122Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2387 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (15 Dec) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (16 Dec, 17 Dec).

III.  Event probabilities 15 Dec-17 Dec
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Dec 071
Predicted   15 Dec-17 Dec 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        14 Dec 069

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Dec  002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Dec  003/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Dec-17 Dec  006/005-008/008-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Dec-17 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/20/20
Minor Storm           01/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/20/20
Minor Storm           15/30/30
Major-severe storm    15/25/25