Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 14 December 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 349 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Dec 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (15 Dec, 16 Dec, 17 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 602 km/s at 14/1054Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 14/1538Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at 14/0908Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 10187 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (15 Dec, 16 Dec, 17 Dec).

III. Event probabilities 15 Dec-17 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Dec 072
Predicted 15 Dec-17 Dec 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 14 Dec 082

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Dec 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Dec 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Dec-17 Dec 006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Dec-17 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/10/15
Major-severe storm 05/05/05