Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 14 December 2015

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 348 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Dec 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 14/0014Z from Region 2469 (N18E42). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (15 Dec, 16 Dec, 17 Dec).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 540 km/s at 14/2100Z. Total IMF reached 16 nT at 14/1719Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at 14/1524Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 26580 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (15 Dec), unsettled to active levels on day two (16 Dec) and quiet to active levels on day three (17 Dec).

III. Event probabilities 15 Dec-17 Dec
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Dec 124
Predicted 15 Dec-17 Dec 125/130/130
90 Day Mean 14 Dec 108

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Dec 006/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Dec 014/019
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Dec-17 Dec 019/024-015/018-011/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Dec-17 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/35/15
Minor Storm 20/10/05
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/20
Minor Storm 25/35/30
Major-severe storm 60/40/25