Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 14 August 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 226 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Aug 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (15 Aug, 16 Aug, 17 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 428 km/s at 13/2125Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 14/1933Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 14/1500Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 177 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (15 Aug, 16 Aug, 17 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 15 Aug-17 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Aug 073
Predicted 15 Aug-17 Aug 073/073/072
90 Day Mean 14 Aug 079

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Aug 009/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Aug 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Aug-17 Aug 005/005-006/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Aug-17 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 15/15/15