Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 14 August 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 226 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Aug 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (15 Aug, 16 Aug, 17 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of ~500 km/s at ~14/0225Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 14/0112Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 13/2148Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4786 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and three (15 Aug, 17 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (16 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 15 Aug-17 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Aug 067
Predicted 15 Aug-17 Aug 067/067/067
90 Day Mean 14 Aug 068

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Aug 008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Aug 006/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Aug-17 Aug 006/005-007/008-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Aug-17 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/10/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/25/15
Major-severe storm 05/10/05