Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 14 August 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 226 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Aug 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (15 Aug, 16 Aug, 17 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 367 km/s at 13/2102Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (15 Aug, 16 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (17 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 15 Aug-17 Aug
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Aug 069
Predicted   15 Aug-17 Aug 069/069/069
90 Day Mean        14 Aug 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Aug  006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Aug  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Aug-17 Aug  009/012-013/015-007/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Aug-17 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/30/20
Minor Storm           15/15/05
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor Storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    50/50/25