Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 14 August 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 226 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Aug 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 14/1046Z. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (15 Aug, 16 Aug, 17 Aug).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 636 km/s at 13/2107Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 13/2257Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 13/2347Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1017 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (15 Aug), quiet to active levels on day two (16 Aug) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (17 Aug).

III.  Event probabilities 15 Aug-17 Aug
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Aug 073
Predicted   15 Aug-17 Aug 074/074/074
90 Day Mean        14 Aug 076

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Aug  009/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Aug  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Aug-17 Aug  006/005-013/016-019/024

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Aug-17 Aug
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/30/35
Minor Storm           01/15/30
Major-severe storm    01/05/15
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/10/05
Minor Storm           20/25/20
Major-severe storm    15/55/70