Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 14 August 2016

By SpaceRef Editor
August 14, 2016
Filed under , , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 227 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Aug 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 14/1936Z. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (15 Aug, 16 Aug, 17 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 462 km/s at 14/0458Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 14/0528Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 14/1052Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 10062 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (15 Aug, 17 Aug) and quiet to minor storm levels on day two (16 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 15 Aug-17 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Aug 087
Predicted 15 Aug-17 Aug 090/090/090
90 Day Mean 14 Aug 086

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Aug 005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Aug 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Aug-17 Aug 010/012-014/018-010/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Aug-17 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/35/30
Minor Storm 10/25/15
Major-severe storm 01/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/10
Minor Storm 15/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/20/40

SpaceRef staff editor.