Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 14 August 2015

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 226 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Aug 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 14/0200Z from Region 2401 (S12E37). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (15 Aug, 16 Aug, 17 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 398 km/s at 14/0816Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 14/1447Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 14/1329Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 328 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (15 Aug), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (16 Aug) and unsettled to active levels on day three (17 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 15 Aug-17 Aug
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Aug 093
Predicted 15 Aug-17 Aug 095/090/090
90 Day Mean 14 Aug 111

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Aug 014/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Aug 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Aug-17 Aug 006/005-018/025-015/018

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Aug-17 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/35/35
Minor Storm 01/25/10
Major-severe storm 01/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/15
Minor Storm 15/25/30
Major-severe storm 15/60/45