Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 14 August 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 226 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Aug 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (15 Aug,
16 Aug, 17 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 418 km/s at
13/2149Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 201 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (15 Aug, 16 Aug)
and quiet levels on day three (17 Aug).

III. Event probabilities 15 Aug-17 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Aug 103
Predicted 15 Aug-17 Aug 105/110/110
90 Day Mean 14 Aug 127

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Aug 008/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Aug 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Aug-17 Aug 007/008-007/008-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Aug-17 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/05
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/10
Major-severe storm 15/15/05