Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 14 April 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 104 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Apr 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (15 Apr, 16 Apr, 17 Apr).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 14/1031Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 178 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (15 Apr), quiet to active levels on day two (16 Apr) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (17 Apr).

III. Event probabilities 15 Apr-17 Apr
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Apr 074
Predicted 15 Apr-17 Apr 074/074/074
90 Day Mean 14 Apr 076

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Apr 005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Apr 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Apr-17 Apr 007/008-014/018-015/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Apr-17 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/40/40
Minor Storm 05/15/25
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 25/50/65