Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 14 April 2019
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 104 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Apr 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very lowwith a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (15 Apr, 16 Apr, 17 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 403 km/s at 13/2139Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4476 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (15 Apr, 16 Apr, 17 Apr).
III. Event probabilities 15 Apr-17 Apr
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Apr 075
Predicted 15 Apr-17 Apr 075/075/075
90 Day Mean 14 Apr 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Apr 007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Apr 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Apr-17 Apr 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Apr-17 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 15/20/20