Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 14 April 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 105 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Apr 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 13/2343Z from Region 2529 (N09E00). There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (15 Apr, 16 Apr, 17 Apr).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 548 km/s at 13/2145Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 14/0829Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 14/0905Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5141 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (15 Apr) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (16 Apr, 17 Apr).

III. Event probabilities 15 Apr-17 Apr
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Apr 111
Predicted 15 Apr-17 Apr 110/110/110
90 Day Mean 14 Apr 098

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Apr 016/025
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Apr 016/024
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Apr-17 Apr 010/012-007/008-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Apr-17 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/20/20
Minor Storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/25/25
Major-severe storm 45/25/25