Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 14 April 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 104 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Apr 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at
14/0438Z from Region 2036 (S18E13). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (15 Apr, 16 Apr,
17 Apr).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
408 km/s at 14/0542Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 13/2255Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 14/1732Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (15 Apr) and quiet levels
on days two and three (16 Apr, 17 Apr).

III. Event probabilities 15 Apr-17 Apr
Class M 35/35/35
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Apr 150
Predicted 15 Apr-17 Apr 150/150/150
90 Day Mean 14 Apr 153

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Apr 013/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Apr 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Apr-17 Apr 008/008-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Apr-17 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/05/05
Minor Storm 10/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/15/15
Major-severe storm 35/05/05