Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 13 September 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 256 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Sep 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (14 Sep, 15 Sep, 16 Sep).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 527 km/s at 13/0455Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 13/1605Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 13/0604Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2656 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (14 Sep, 15 Sep, 16 Sep).

III. Event probabilities 14 Sep-16 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Sep 068
Predicted 14 Sep-16 Sep 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 13 Sep 067

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Sep 007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Sep 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Sep-16 Sep 008/008-008/008-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Sep-16 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/20/20