Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 13 September 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 257 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Sep 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (14 Sep, 15 Sep, 16 Sep).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 329 km/s at 12/2247Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 13/0107Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 13/2100Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5911 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (14 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (15 Sep, 16 Sep).

III. Event probabilities 14 Sep-16 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Sep 086
Predicted 14 Sep-16 Sep 085/080/080
90 Day Mean 13 Sep 085

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Sep 006/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Sep 006/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Sep-16 Sep 006/006-007/008-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Sep-16 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/15/15
Major-severe storm 15/15/15