Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 13 September 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 256 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Sep 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (14
Sep, 15 Sep, 16 Sep).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
603 km/s at 13/0108Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 13/1603Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 13/1525Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 178 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is likely to
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (14 Sep) with a chance for
active conditions, mostly quiet levels on day two (15 Sep) and likely to
be at active levels on day three (16 Sep) with a slight chance for minor
storm conditions.

III. Event probabilities 14 Sep-16 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Sep 092
Predicted 14 Sep-16 Sep 100/100/100
90 Day Mean 13 Sep 113

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Sep 005/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Sep 008/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Sep-16 Sep 008/010-005/005-013/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Sep-16 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/05/50
Minor Storm 05/01/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 25/15/15
Minor Storm 35/15/35
Major-severe storm 25/05/45