Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 13 October 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 286 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Oct 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. the largest event of the period was a C1 event observed at 13/1833Z from Region 2882 (N17W55). There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (14 Oct, 15 Oct, 16 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 480 km/s at 12/2211Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 12/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at 12/2251Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 193 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (14 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (15 Oct, 16 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 14 Oct-16 Oct
Class M 05/05/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 05/05/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Oct 084
Predicted 14 Oct-16 Oct 084/082/080
90 Day Mean 13 Oct 083

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Oct 032/048
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Oct 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Oct-16 Oct 005/005-006/008-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Oct-16 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/20/20
Minor Storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/20
Minor Storm 20/25/25
Major-severe storm 20/25/25