Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 13 October 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 287 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Oct 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (14 Oct, 15 Oct, 16 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 315 km/s at 13/0625Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 13/0142Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 13/0024Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 346 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (14 Oct, 15 Oct, 16 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 14 Oct-16 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Oct 072
Predicted 14 Oct-16 Oct 073/073/072
90 Day Mean 13 Oct 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Oct 003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Oct 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Oct-16 Oct 006/005-006/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Oct-16 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 10/10/10