Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 13 October 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast

SDF Number 286 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Oct 2019 

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (14 Oct, 15 Oct, 16 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 386 km/s at 13/0002Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 898 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (14 Oct) and quiet levels on days two and three (15 Oct, 16 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 14 Oct-16 Oct

Class M    01/01/01

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           13 Oct 067

Predicted   14 Oct-16 Oct 068/068/068

90 Day Mean        13 Oct 068

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 12 Oct  004/004

Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Oct  002/003

Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Oct-16 Oct  008/008-005/008-006/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Oct-16 Oct

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                20/10/05

Minor Storm           05/05/01

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                15/15/15

Minor Storm           20/20/20

Major-severe storm    20/10/10