Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 13 October 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 286 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Oct 2018

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (14 Oct, 15 Oct, 16 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 507 km/s at 13/2056Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 13/1806Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at 13/1524Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 35256 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (14 Oct), quiet to active levels on day two (15 Oct) and quiet levels on day three (16 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 14 Oct-16 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Oct 072
Predicted 14 Oct-16 Oct 072/071/070
90 Day Mean 13 Oct 069

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Oct 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Oct 012/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Oct-16 Oct 014/030-010/012-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Oct-16 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 45/20/10
Minor Storm 25/05/01
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/20
Major-severe storm 60/25/20