Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 13 October 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 286 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Oct 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (14 Oct, 15 Oct, 16 Oct).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 691 km/s at 13/1759Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 13/1543Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 13/1514Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4986 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to major storm levels on day one (14 Oct), unsettled to active levels on day two (15 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (16 Oct).

III.  Event probabilities 14 Oct-16 Oct
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Oct 070
Predicted   14 Oct-16 Oct 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        13 Oct 082

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Oct  020/029
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Oct  028/045
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Oct-16 Oct  022/035-015/020-007/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Oct-16 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/25
Minor Storm           40/15/10
Major-severe storm    15/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                05/10/15
Minor Storm           20/25/25
Major-severe storm    75/45/35