Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 13 October 2015

By SpaceRef Editor
October 13, 2015
Filed under , , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 286 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Oct 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at 13/1411Z from Region 2434 (S08E74). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (14 Oct, 15 Oct, 16 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 617 km/s at 13/0531Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 13/0018Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 13/1512Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 10091 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one, two, and three (14 Oct, 15 Oct, 16 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 14 Oct-16 Oct
Class M 30/30/40
Class X 01/01/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Oct 096
Predicted 14 Oct-16 Oct 105/110/115
90 Day Mean 13 Oct 101

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Oct 016/024
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Oct 018/026
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Oct-16 Oct 021/030-021/030-021/030

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Oct-16 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/40/40
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 10/10/10
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 65/65/65

SpaceRef staff editor.