Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 13 October 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 286 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Oct 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (14 Oct,
15 Oct, 16 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 437 km/s at
13/1633Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 13/1136Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -6 nT at 13/2054Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (14 Oct, 15 Oct)
and quiet levels on day three (16 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 14 Oct-16 Oct
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Oct 113
Predicted 14 Oct-16 Oct 115/120/125
90 Day Mean 13 Oct 130

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Oct 002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Oct 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Oct-16 Oct 007/008-007/008-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Oct-16 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 25/25/25