Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 13 October 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 286 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Oct 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
13/0043Z from Region 1865 (S22E06). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (14 Oct, 15 Oct, 16 Oct).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 423 km/s at
12/2116Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 12/2313Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 12/2308Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 407 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (14 Oct), quiet to active levels on day
two (15 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (16 Oct).

III. Event probabilities 14 Oct-16 Oct
Class M 40/40/40
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Oct 129
Predicted 14 Oct-16 Oct 125/125/125
90 Day Mean 13 Oct 110

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Oct 003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Oct 002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Oct-16 Oct 005/005-010/012-008/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Oct-16 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/20/20
Minor Storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/20/20
Major-severe storm 05/20/15