Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 13 November 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 317 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Nov 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 13/0843Z from Region 2894 (S28W33). There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (14 Nov, 15 Nov, 16 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 383 km/s at 13/0312Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 12/2119Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 13/1851Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1185 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (14 Nov, 15 Nov) and quiet to active levels on day three (16 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 14 Nov-16 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Nov 081
Predicted 14 Nov-16 Nov 081/081/083
90 Day Mean 13 Nov 087

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Nov 003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Nov 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Nov-16 Nov 005/005-006/005-008/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Nov-16 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/30
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/15
Minor Storm 20/20/30
Major-severe storm 10/10/35