Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 13 November 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 318 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Nov 2020

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (14 Nov, 15 Nov, 16 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 443 km/s at 13/0341Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 12/2354Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 13/0048Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 221 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (14 Nov, 15 Nov) and quiet levels on day three (16 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 14 Nov-16 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Nov 082
Predicted 14 Nov-16 Nov 082/080/078
90 Day Mean 13 Nov 074

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Nov 003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Nov 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Nov-16 Nov 008/008-007/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Nov-16 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/10
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 25/25/20
Major-severe storm 20/20/10