Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 13 November 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 317 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Nov 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (14 Nov, 15 Nov, 16 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 367 km/s at 13/1424Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 12/2357Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 13/0044Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (14 Nov, 15 Nov) and quiet to active levels on day three (16 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 14 Nov-16 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Nov 071
Predicted 14 Nov-16 Nov 071/071/071
90 Day Mean 13 Nov 068

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Nov 003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Nov 001/002
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Nov-16 Nov 006/005-006/005-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Nov-16 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/05/30
Minor Storm 01/01/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/20/30
Major-severe storm 10/10/40