Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 13 November 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 317 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Nov 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (14 Nov, 15 Nov, 16 Nov).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 436 km/s at 12/2307Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 20582 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (14 Nov, 16 Nov) and unsettled to active levels on day two (15 Nov).

III.  Event probabilities 14 Nov-16 Nov
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Nov 072
Predicted   14 Nov-16 Nov 075/075/075
90 Day Mean        13 Nov 082

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Nov  004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Nov  006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Nov-16 Nov  013/016-015/018-010/012

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Nov-16 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/40/30
Minor Storm           15/15/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                10/20/20
Minor Storm           30/30/25
Major-severe storm    50/35/25