Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 13 November 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 318 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Nov 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (14 Nov, 15 Nov, 16 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 767 km/s at 13/0701Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 12/2327Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 13/1930Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 10253 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (14 Nov), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (15 Nov) and quiet levels on day three (16 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 14 Nov-16 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Nov 078
Predicted 14 Nov-16 Nov 075/075/075
90 Day Mean 13 Nov 085

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Nov 013/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Nov 017/023
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Nov-16 Nov 011/015-009/010-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Nov-16 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/10/10
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/15/15
Major-severe storm 20/10/10