Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 13 November 2015

By SpaceRef Editor
November 13, 2015
Filed under , , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 317 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Nov 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 13/0128Z from Region 2452 (S08E14). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (14 Nov, 15 Nov, 16 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 492 km/s at 13/2018Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 13/1439Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 13/1320Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 88813 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (14 Nov), quiet to active levels on day two (15 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (16 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 14 Nov-16 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Nov 103
Predicted 14 Nov-16 Nov 105/105/100
90 Day Mean 13 Nov 105

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Nov 004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Nov 013/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Nov-16 Nov 017/022-011/012-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Nov-16 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/30/15
Minor Storm 20/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/20
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 55/40/20

SpaceRef staff editor.