Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 13 November 2013

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 317 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Nov 2013

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at
12/2308Z from Region 1897 (S20E51). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one and two (14 Nov, 15 Nov) and expected to be low with a chance
for M-class flares on day three (16 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 439 km/s at
12/2122Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 325 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (14 Nov, 15 Nov, 16
Nov). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing
threshold on days one and two (14 Nov, 15 Nov).

III. Event probabilities 14 Nov-16 Nov
Class M 50/50/50
Class X 15/15/05
Proton 20/20/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Nov 171
Predicted 14 Nov-16 Nov 170/165/160
90 Day Mean 13 Nov 123

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Nov 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Nov 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Nov-16 Nov 006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Nov-16 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/10/10