Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 13 May 2019
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 133 Issued at 2200Z on 13 May 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (14 May, 15 May, 16 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 401 km/s at 13/1942Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 13/1047Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 13/0857Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 13474 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (14 May), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (15 May) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (16 May).
III. Event probabilities 14 May-16 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 May 075
Predicted 14 May-16 May 075/075/075
90 Day Mean 13 May 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 May 005/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 May 006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 May-16 May 005/005-018/024-020/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 May-16 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor Storm 01/25/30
Major-severe storm 01/15/15
B. High Latitudes
Minor Storm 20/25/25
Major-severe storm 10/55/65