Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 13 May 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 133 Issued at 2200Z on 13 May 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (14 May, 15 May, 16 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 401 km/s at 13/1942Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 13/1047Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 13/0857Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 13474 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (14 May), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (15 May) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (16 May).

III.  Event probabilities 14 May-16 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 May 075
Predicted   14 May-16 May 075/075/075
90 Day Mean        13 May 072

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 May  005/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 May  006/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 May-16 May  005/005-018/024-020/030

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 May-16 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/30/35
Minor Storm           01/25/30
Major-severe storm    01/15/15
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/10/10
Minor Storm           20/25/25
Major-severe storm    10/55/65