Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 13 May 2017

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 133 Issued at 2200Z on 13 May 2017

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (14 May, 15 May, 16 May).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 379 km/s at 12/2102Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 12/2253Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at 13/0144Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 642 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (14 May), quiet to active levels on day two (15 May) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (16 May).

III.  Event probabilities 14 May-16 May
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 May 070
Predicted   14 May-16 May 070/070/070
90 Day Mean        13 May 077

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 May  006/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 May  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 May-16 May  006/005-009/010-014/018

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 May-16 May
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                05/20/40
Minor Storm           05/05/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/10
Minor Storm           15/20/20
Major-severe storm    15/10/40