Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 133 Issued at 2200Z on 13 May 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at 13/1818Z from Region 2345 (N16W16). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (14 May, 15 May, 16 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 759 km/s at 13/2056Z. Total IMF reached 18 nT at 13/0207Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -16 nT at 12/2340Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2 pfu at 12/2235Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (14 May), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (15 May) and quiet levels on day three (16 May).
III. Event probabilities 14 May-16 May
Class M 30/30/30
Class X 05/05/05
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 May 157
Predicted 14 May-16 May 155/150/150
90 Day Mean 13 May 128
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 May 016/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 May 032/046
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 May-16 May 018/025-010/012-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 May-16 May