Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 13 May 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 133 Issued at 2200Z on 13 May 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
13/0920Z from Region 2056 (N05W23). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (14 May, 15 May,
16 May).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 412 km/s at
13/0021Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 295 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (14 May, 16
May) and quiet to active levels on day two (15 May).

III. Event probabilities 14 May-16 May
Class M 30/30/30
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 May 159
Predicted 14 May-16 May 165/165/160
90 Day Mean 13 May 150

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 May 010/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 May 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 May-16 May 007/008-009/010-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 May-16 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/30/20
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 30/35/25