Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 13 March 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 72 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Mar 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 13/0323Z from Region 2962 (N27W49). There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (14 Mar, 15 Mar, 16 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 580 km/s at 13/1047Z. Total IMF reached 25 nT at 13/1708Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -18 nT at 13/1636Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 583 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (14 Mar), unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (15 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (16 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 14 Mar-16 Mar
Class M 25/25/25
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Mar 123
Predicted 14 Mar-16 Mar 120/120/115
90 Day Mean 13 Mar 110

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Mar 007/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Mar 020/034
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Mar-16 Mar 020/030-015/020-011/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Mar-16 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/35/20
Minor Storm 35/30/05
Major-severe storm 25/10/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/20
Minor Storm 15/20/30
Major-severe storm 80/65/25