Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 13 March 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 72 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Mar 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There is currently 1 numbered sunspot region on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (14 Mar, 15 Mar, 16 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 576 km/s at 13/2046Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 13/0257Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 13/0304Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 226 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (14 Mar) and quiet levels on days two and three (15 Mar, 16 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 14 Mar-16 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Mar 081
Predicted 14 Mar-16 Mar 077/077/077
90 Day Mean 13 Mar 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Mar 009/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Mar 016/019
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Mar-16 Mar 009/010-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Mar-16 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/10/10
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/20/20
Major-severe storm 30/10/10