Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 13 March 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 72 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Mar 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (14 Mar, 15 Mar, 16 Mar).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 372 km/s at 13/0029Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 13/1914Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 13/1828Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 464 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (14 Mar, 16 Mar) and quiet to active levels on day two (15 Mar).

III.  Event probabilities 14 Mar-16 Mar
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Mar 071
Predicted   14 Mar-16 Mar 070/070/068
90 Day Mean        13 Mar 071

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Mar  005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Mar  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Mar-16 Mar  009/008-010/012-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Mar-16 Mar
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/30/10
Minor Storm           01/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor Storm           20/30/25
Major-severe storm    10/30/20