Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 13 March 2016

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 73 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Mar 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (14 Mar, 15 Mar, 16 Mar).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 493 km/s at 13/0239Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 13/0436Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at 13/0529Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (14 Mar) and unsettled to minor storm levels on days two and three (15 Mar, 16 Mar).

III. Event probabilities 14 Mar-16 Mar
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Mar 093
Predicted 14 Mar-16 Mar 095/090/090
90 Day Mean 13 Mar 105

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Mar 011/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Mar 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Mar-16 Mar 006/005-017/025-016/022

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Mar-16 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/40/35
Minor Storm 05/30/30
Major-severe storm 01/05/10
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 20/25/20
Major-severe storm 20/60/65