Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 72 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Mar 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at 12/2151Z from Region 2297 (S16E00). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (14 Mar, 15 Mar, 16 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 478 km/s at 13/1248Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 13/1824Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 13/1125Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 144 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (14 Mar), unsettled to active levels on day two (15 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (16 Mar). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (14 Mar, 15 Mar, 16 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 14 Mar-16 Mar
Class M 70/70/70
Class X 20/20/20
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Mar 119
Predicted 14 Mar-16 Mar 120/120/120
90 Day Mean 13 Mar 140
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Mar 006/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Mar 008/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Mar-16 Mar 015/020-012/015-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Mar-16 Mar