Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 13 June 2022

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 164 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jun 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at 13/0407Z from Region 3032 (N21E33). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (14 Jun, 15 Jun, 16 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 566 km/s at 13/0720Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 13/0246Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 13/0128Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 177 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (14 Jun), active to minor storm levels on day two (15 Jun) and unsettled to active levels on day three (16 Jun). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (14 Jun, 15 Jun, 16 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 14 Jun-16 Jun
Class M 35/30/30
Class X 10/10/10
Proton 10/10/10
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Jun 132
Predicted 14 Jun-16 Jun 132/132/132
90 Day Mean 13 Jun 126

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jun 012/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jun 011/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jun-16 Jun 009/012-027/040-014/018

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jun-16 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/30/35
Minor Storm 10/30/20
Major-severe storm 01/15/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 30/25/30
Major-severe storm 35/65/50