Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 13 June 2021

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 164 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jun 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (14 Jun, 15 Jun, 16 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 517 km/s at 13/0752Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 12/2350Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 12/2346Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 189 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (14 Jun) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (15 Jun, 16 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 14 Jun-16 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Jun 069
Predicted 14 Jun-16 Jun 077/077/077
90 Day Mean 13 Jun 076

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jun 008/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jun 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jun-16 Jun 008/008-008/010-011/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jun-16 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/25/25
Minor Storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/30/30
Major-severe storm 20/35/35