Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 13 June 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast

SDF Number 164 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jun 2019

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (14 Jun, 15 Jun, 16 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic

field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 495 km/s at 13/2003Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 13/1903Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 13/2051Z.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (14 Jun, 15 Jun, 16 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 14 Jun-16 Jun

Class M    01/01/01

Class X    01/01/01

Proton     01/01/01

PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

Observed           13 Jun 068

Predicted   14 Jun-16 Jun 068/068/068

90 Day Mean        13 Jun 072

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices

Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jun  005/004

Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jun  006/007

Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jun-16 Jun  006/008-009/010-009/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jun-16 Jun

A.  Middle Latitudes

Active                20/20/20

Minor Storm           05/05/05

Major-severe storm    01/01/01

B.  High Latitudes

Active                15/20/20

Minor Storm           20/25/30

Major-severe storm    25/20/25