Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 13 June 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 164 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jun 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (14 Jun, 15 Jun, 16 Jun).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 829 km/s at 13/0158Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 13/1839Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 13/1657Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1544 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (14 Jun, 15 Jun, 16 Jun).

III.  Event probabilities 14 Jun-16 Jun
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Jun 071
Predicted   14 Jun-16 Jun 072/072/072
90 Day Mean        13 Jun 070

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jun  005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jun  007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jun-16 Jun  006/005-005/005-005/005

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jun-16 Jun
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/10