Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 13 June 2014

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 164 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jun 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
12/2216Z from Region 2085 (S20W58). There are currently 11 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (14 Jun, 15
Jun, 16 Jun).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 398 km/s at
12/2107Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 13/1327Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -6 nT at 13/1213Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 227 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (14 Jun), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (15 Jun) and quiet levels on day three (16 Jun).
Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three
(14 Jun, 15 Jun, 16 Jun).

III. Event probabilities 14 Jun-16 Jun
Class M 70/70/70
Class X 30/30/30
Proton 30/30/30
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Jun 153
Predicted 14 Jun-16 Jun 150/140/135
90 Day Mean 13 Jun 139

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jun 005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jun 006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jun-16 Jun 016/020-009/010-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jun-16 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/20/15
Minor Storm 25/05/05
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/10/25
Major-severe storm 25/05/20