Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 13 July 2019

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 194 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jul 2019

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (14 Jul, 15 Jul, 16 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 496 km/s at 12/2236Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 13/0741Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 13/0741Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6421 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (14 Jul) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (15 Jul, 16 Jul).

III. Event probabilities 14 Jul-16 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Jul 066
Predicted 14 Jul-16 Jul 067/067/067
90 Day Mean 13 Jul 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jul 005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jul 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jul-16 Jul 006/005-007/010-011/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jul-16 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/30/30
Minor Storm 05/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/30/30
Major-severe storm 15/35/35