Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 13 July 2018

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 194 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jul 2018

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (14 Jul, 15 Jul, 16 Jul).

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 500 km/s at 13/0656Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 12/2349Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 12/2349Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 117 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (14 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (15 Jul, 16 Jul).

III.  Event probabilities 14 Jul-16 Jul
Class M    01/01/01
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Jul 073
Predicted   14 Jul-16 Jul 072/072/072
90 Day Mean        13 Jul 072

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jul  008/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jul  005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jul-16 Jul  006/005-007/008-007/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jul-16 Jul
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor Storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor Storm           20/25/25
Major-severe storm    15/20/20